Last week we talked about jobs from the past that have
already gone by the wayside. And this week in part 2 of 2, we're going to talk
about jobs many of which are predicted to be nearly gone in the next 20 years
or at least out-of-date.
What education should you get to best position yourself for
the coming decade? What line of work should you be in, and which professions
have no future and will disappear? What does the brave new world have to offer?
Here is a list I came across of jobs predicted to be obsolete in 20 years—some
logical, some surprising, some frightening, and some seem a little far-fetched.
Actor: Actors in
film and television will be replaced by completely realistic looking animations.
CGI (computer generated images) are already fully integrated into movies,
television, and even commercials. And we can't forget the current focus on AI
(artificial intelligence) changing entertainment, the art world, news, and
other facets of everyday life. What's real and what isn't? Will the AI
performers be able to project the same emotion into a role that real people do?
Real people actors will, of course, exist for a while longer and will probably
be performing in many parts of the world simultaneously, through the
anticipated widespread use of holograms and similar technology.
Cashier: Many
grocery stores, big box stores, and large discount stores already have
self-check stands, but that’s just a tradeoff between a cashier doing the job
and you doing it yourself, with the claim that it makes your purchasers
cheaper. However, the self-check stands do not provide you with a discount for
your purchases. Remember when ATMs first became available and we were
encouraged to use those machines and told it was a good thing because it would
save money? Yet in today's world, we're charged ATM fees if our bank isn't in
that ATM network. In the future, check stands
will be fully automated. Just leave your groceries on the conveyer belt and let
the robot scanner tally it up many times faster than a human ever could. As a
consequence, or so it's claimed, lines will be much less of a nuisance as they
become increasingly non-existent.
Construction worker:
Construction work can be hazardous, so why should humans risk their lives doing
it? In the future, insurance companies certainly won’t cover a construction
firm that takes such unnecessary risks. Robotics are becoming increasingly
sophisticated, and they’ll be constructing buildings cheaper, and far more
rapidly than humans. But will they be as good or as safe?
Soldier: Compared
to sophisticated robots, humans are relatively susceptible to mental
deficiencies such as nervousness, pride, stupidity, miscalculation, slow
reaction time, and basic fatigue. In other words: they say computers can do the
same job more efficiently, without risking human life, and without
apprehension. This one is surely going to be dependent on perfected artificial
intelligence…that instant response to a totally unexpected situation. But at
what cost? How can a computer replace any and all instant decisions that
require a human input? Not everything is a mathematical calculation.
Security guard:
Buy a strong, obedient robot that can see in the dark, never falls asleep on
duty, and won’t accept bribes, to protect your home or your business. But
again, sometimes that split second response requires a human touch.
Car mechanic:
Cars will become too technically complex to repair for humans. Computers and
robots will take care of it. Eventually, cars will fix themselves. They've
already started driving themselves, but not yet successfully enough to make
them truly viable or street legal.
Trash collector:
Instead of two unhappy guys tossing trash from a receptacle into the back of
the truck, a single fast, strong and highly motivated robot will complete the
process in five seconds. [my trash pickup has recently been reduced to a one
man operation and that one man is the driver—newly issued trash receptacles,
instructions about where/how they are placed at the curb, and trucks with
automatic arms that pick up the receptacle and dump the contents into the truck
then return the receptacle to the curb except it sometimes ends up in the
street on its side]
Assembly line worker:
Automakers, textile producers and furniture factories (to mention just a few of
the industries) around the world are cutting costs by reducing their number of
salary, pension and insurance absorbing employees, and shifting focus to robotic
solutions.
Toll booth operator:
Many developed countries have already successfully implemented money-and-time
saving automatic toll booths with video detection and post payment/subscriptions.
Prostitute: The
completely lifelike robot girlfriends will satisfy the demand for carnal
services in the future. [the movie Westworld
has become reality?]
Nature photographer:
Close-ups from inside the lion's cave and year-long stakeouts without the need
for food or shelter are the advantages of photographic robots. [but does all
this robotic perfection replace the creative and artistic eye contributed by
the human element?]
Surgeon: Why let
a nervous, shaky doctor with poor eyesight cut you with knives and fool around
inside of you, when a steady handed, ice cool and accurate robot can do it
instead? Medical malpractice lawsuits cost the American health providers some
$30 billion each year. They say that will end.
Pilot:
Computerized pilots are not like regular pilots in that they are not prone to
human error, i.e. they won't spill coffee on the instrument panels in the
cockpit or miscalculate their landing angle. Nor do they need good visibility
to fly, as their millimeter-accurate GPS and sensor systems will guide them
blindly to their destination. Obviously, they will have to prove their merit
before plane passengers, and by extension airlines, can trust them.
Film processor:
Even today it seems absurd to have a full time employee engaged in nothing but
processing film. In fact, it has become difficult to find a local place to
process your film and equally difficult to find a place to purchase 35mm film
for your old film camera. And also along those lines, most modern movie
theaters are rapidly moving away from film which makes a projectionist also on
the track toward being obsolete.
Librarian:
Libraries will soon look very different. Why have a library containing 50,000
paper made books when you can have 50 million of them in virtual form, which
you can access with your library card and download to your electronic e-reader
device in numerous formats. There will not be any need for humans to process
the lending of books.
Call center operator:
By 2029, when computers are scheduled to match human intelligence, a microchip
will call your house and argue that you do, in fact, need flood insurance or to
purchase an extended warranty for your car or household appliances. Computer
generated robo calls are already a daily nuisance.
News anchor: No
mispronunciations, no misunderstandings, no Freudian slips, just a perfectly
articulate teleprompter with an attractive face. [some more of the 'no actor'
technology of item number 1?] But it does not guarantee that the news will be
accurate.
Mailman: Who
sends snail-mail these days? Mostly nostalgic pen pals. While we may have a
small segment left of the paper mail industry, most of the things we use the
mail for are transitioning to or have already moved completely online: Bills,
public notices, and business-letters. Although, we’ll still need package
delivery at least until nanotechnology enables us to send and download material
objects like we send files today, in 30-40 years. [or at such time as we all
have 3D printers so we can purchase the article via the internet and print out
the item in our homes or everything is delivered by drones regardless of where
you want it delivered]
Waiters: Robots
don't have an attitude, won't spill your food, and don't need tips. They can
work tirelessly around the clock (don't call in sick), be ultra-efficient and
be called upon by clicking a button on your menu.
Receptionist:
Artificial intelligence and robotics sciences are approaching a point where the
robots we can make will match humans in terms of intelligence. These robots
will be our faithful servants who perform the menial tasks, so humans can focus
on developing themselves. But can they be personable rather than strictly
business?
Extra: Jobs that
will be outsourced to countries with inexpensive labor. Yes, these jobs will
still exist, but will be performed by workers in countries that can offer
inexpensive, skilled labor.
Accountant
Auditor
Web designer
Engineer
Customer service (much of this has already happened)
Many high-tech jobs
It seems that job predictions for the future usually include
something about freeing us up to have more leisure time to enjoy and spend with
family and friends. However, they don't say how an ever increasing
world population is supposed to earn a living in an arena of decreasing jobs.
An interesting problem to ponder.
